Using case vignettes to study the presence of outcome, hindsight, and implicit bias in acute unplanned medical care: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE: Various biases can impact decision-making and judgment of case quality in the Emergency Department (ED). Outcome and hindsight bias can lead to wrong retrospective judgment of care quality, and implicit bias can result in unjust treatment differences in the ED based on irrelevant patient characteristics. OBJECTIVES: First, to evaluate the extent to which knowledge of an outcome influences physicians' quality of care assessment. Secondly, to examine whether patients with functional disorders receive different treatment compared to patients with a somatic past medical history. DESIGN: A web-based cross-sectional study in which physicians received case vignettes with a case description and care provided. Physicians were informed about vignette outcomes in a randomized way (no, good, or bad outcome). Physicians rated quality of care for four casevignettes with different outcomes. Subsequently, they received two more case vignettes. Physicians were informed about the past medical history of the patient in a randomized way (somatic or functional). Physicians made treatment and diagnostic decisions for both cases. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: One hundred ninety-one Dutch emergency physicians (EPs) and general practitioners (GPs) participated. OUTCOME MEASURES AND ANALYSIS: Quality of care was rated on a Likert scale (0-5) and dichotomized as adequate (yes/no). Physicians estimated the likelihood of patients experiencing a bad outcome for hindsight bias. For the second objective, physicians decided on prescribing analgesics and additional diagnostic tests. MAIN RESULTS: Large differences existed in rated quality of care for three out of four vignettes based on different case outcomes. For example, physicians rated the quality of care as adequate in 44% (95% CI 33-57%) for an abdominal pain case with a bad outcome, compared to 88% (95% CI 78-94%) for a good outcome, and 84% (95% CI 73-91%) for no outcome (P < 0.01). The estimated likelihood of a bad outcome was higher if physicians received a vignette with a bad patient outcome. Fewer diagnostic tests were performed and fewer opioids were prescribed for patients with a functional disorder. CONCLUSION: Outcome, hindsight, and implicit bias significantly influence decision-making and care quality assessment by Dutch EPs and GPs.

THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE AND HEART RATE IN EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT PATIENTS: A MULTICENTER COHORT STUDY.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines and textbooks assert that tachycardia is an early and reliable sign of hypotension, and an increased heart rate (HR) is believed to be an early warning sign for the development of shock, although this response may change by aging, pain, and stress. OBJECTIVE: To assess the unadjusted and adjusted associations between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and HR in emergency department (ED) patients of different age categories (18-50 years; 50-80 years; > 80 years). METHODS: A multicenter cohort study using the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database (NEED) including all ED patients ≥ 18 years from three hospitals in whom HR and SBP were registered at arrival to the ED. Findings were validated in a Danish cohort including ED patients. In addition, a separate cohort was used including ED patients with a suspected infection who were hospitalized from whom measurement of SBP and HR were available prior to, during, and after ED treatment. Associations between SBP and HR were visualized and quantified with scatterplots and regression coefficients (95% confidence interval [CI]). RESULTS: A total of 81,750 ED patients were included from the NEED, and a total of 2358 patients with a suspected infection. No associations were found between SBP and HR in any age category (18-50 years: -0.03 beats/min/10 mm Hg, 95% CI -0.13-0.07, 51-80 years: -0.43 beats/min/10 mm Hg, 95% CI -0.38 to -0.50, > 80 years: -0.61 beats/min/10 mm Hg, 95% CI -0.53 to -0.71), nor in different subgroups of ED patient. No increase in HR existed with a decreasing SBP during ED treatment in ED patients with a suspected infection. CONCLUSION: No association between SBP and HR existed in ED patients of any age category, nor in ED patients who were hospitalized with a suspected infection, even during and after ED treatment. Emergency physicians may be misled by traditional concepts about HR disturbances because tachycardia may be absent in hypotension.

Development and External Validation of the International Early Warning Score for Improved Age- and Sex-Adjusted In-Hospital Mortality Prediction in the Emergency Department.

OBJECTIVES: Early Warning Scores (EWSs) have a great potential to assist clinical decision-making in the emergency department (ED). However, many EWS contain methodological weaknesses in development and validation and have poor predictive performance in older patients. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate an International Early Warning Score (IEWS) based on a recalibrated National Early warning Score (NEWS) model including age and sex and evaluate its performance independently at arrival to the ED in three age categories (18-65, 66-80, > 80 yr). DESIGN: International multicenter cohort study. SETTING: Data was used from three Dutch EDs. External validation was performed in two EDs in Denmark. PATIENTS: All consecutive ED patients greater than or equal to 18 years in the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database (NEED) with at least two registered vital signs were included, resulting in 95,553 patients. For external validation, 14,809 patients were included from a Danish Multicenter Cohort (DMC). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Model performance to predict in-hospital mortality was evaluated by discrimination, calibration curves and summary statistics, reclassification, and clinical usefulness by decision curve analysis. In-hospital mortality rate was 2.4% ( n = 2,314) in the NEED and 2.5% ( n = 365) in the DMC. Overall, the IEWS performed significantly better than NEWS with an area under the receiving operating characteristic of 0.89 (95% CIs, 0.89-0.90) versus 0.82 (0.82-0.83) in the NEED and 0.87 (0.85-0.88) versus 0.82 (0.80-0.84) at external validation. Calibration for NEWS predictions underestimated risk in older patients and overestimated risk in the youngest, while calibration improved for IEWS with a substantial reclassification of patients from low to high risk and a standardized net benefit of 5-15% in the relevant risk range for all age categories. CONCLUSIONS: The IEWS substantially improves in-hospital mortality prediction for all ED patients greater than or equal to18 years.

The prediction of 24-h mortality by the respiratory rate and oxygenation index compared with National Early Warning Score in emergency department patients: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: The ROX index combines respiratory rate and oxygenation to predict the response to oxygen therapy in pneumonia. It is calculated by dividing the patient's oxygen saturation, by the inspired oxygen concentration, and then by the respiratory rate (e.g. 95%/0.21/16 = 28). Since this index includes the most essential physiological variables to detect deterioration, it may be a helpful risk tool in the emergency department (ED). Although small studies suggest it can predict early mortality, no large study has compared it with the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), the most widely validated risk score for death within 24 h. AIM: The aim of this study was to compare the ability of the ROX index with the NEWS to predict mortality within 24 h of arrival at the hospital. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational multicentre analysis of data in the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED) on 270 665 patients attending four participating Dutch EDs. The ROX index and NEWS were determined on ED arrival and prior to ED treatment. RESULTS: The risk of death within 24 h increased with falling ROX and rising NEWS values. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curves for 24-h mortality of NEWS was significantly higher than for the ROX index [0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.91-0.92 versus 0.87; 95% CI, 0.86-0.88; P < 0.01]. However, the observed and predicted mortality by the ROX index was identical to mortality of 5%, after which mortality was underestimated. In contrast, up to a predicted 24-h mortality of 3% NEWS slightly underestimates mortality, and above this level over-estimates it. The standardized net benefit of ROX is slightly higher than NEWS up to a predicted 24-h mortality of 3%. CONCLUSION: The prediction of 24-h mortality by the ROX index is more accurate than NEWS for most patients likely to be encountered in the ED. ROX may be used as a first screening tool in the ED.

The influence of a contoured seating base on pressure distribution and discomfort.

PURPOSE: This research paper examines how contouring of a wheelchair seating base can help prevent pressure sores by distributing pressure over the buttocks. Contouring wheelchair cushioning is already done to some extent and has proved to be beneficial for pressure distribution. We researched the effect of contouring the seating base, and whether contouring the seating base affects effectiveness in pressure distribution and perceived discomfort. MATERIALS & METHODS: 13 healthy participants performed a within-subject experiment with three differently contoured seating bases. Perceived comfort and seating pressure were measured for each condition. RESULTS: Results indicate that a more contoured base is positive for both comfort and increased pressure distribution. CONCLUSIONS: Contoured seating bases can provide increased comfort and improved pressure distribution over flat seating bases. Future research should examine the effect of contouring on stability, as well as compare the effects of contoured seating bases and contoured cushions.Implications for rehabilitationWe evaluated the comfort and pressure characteristics of three differently contoured hard seating bases for a wheelchair. The outcomes of the research shows that providing increased contour to seatings could be beneficial to reduce pressure peaks in the buttocks.Contour in the seating is conventionally created by shaping the cushions, this research shows the possibility of using a hard base underneath a cushion to create the desired contour.

The effect of treatment and clinical course during Emergency Department stay on severity scoring and predicted mortality risk in Intensive Care patients.

BACKGROUND: Treatment and the clinical course during Emergency Department (ED) stay before Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission may affect predicted mortality risk calculated by the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE)-IV, causing lead-time bias. As a result, comparing standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) among hospitals may be difficult if they differ in the location where initial stabilization takes place. The aim of this study was to assess to what extent predicted mortality risk would be affected if the APACHE-IV score was recalculated with the initial physiological variables from the ED. Secondly, to evaluate whether ED Length of Stay (LOS) was associated with a change (delta) in these APACHE-IV scores. METHODS: An observational multicenter cohort study including ICU patients admitted from the ED. Data from two Dutch quality registries were linked: the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database (NEED) and the National Intensive Care Evaluation (NICE) registry. The ICU APACHE-IV, predicted mortality, and SMR based on data of the first 24 h of ICU admission were compared with an ED APACHE-IV model, using the most deviating physiological variables from the ED or ICU. RESULTS: A total of 1398 patients were included. The predicted mortality from the ICU APACHE-IV (median 0.10; IQR 0.03-0.30) was significantly lower compared to the ED APACHE-IV model (median 0.13; 0.04-0.36; p < 0.01). The SMR changed from 0.63 (95%CI 0.54-0.72) to 0.55 (95%CI 0.47-0.63) based on ED APACHE-IV. Predicted mortality risk changed more than 5% in 321 (23.2%) patients by using the ED APACHE-IV. ED LOS > 3.9 h was associated with a slight increase in delta APACHE-IV of 1.6 (95% CI 0.4-2.8) compared to ED LOS < 1.7 h. CONCLUSION: Predicted mortality risks and SMRs calculated by the APACHE IV scores are not directly comparable in patients admitted from the ED if hospitals differ in their policy to stabilize patients in the ED before ICU admission. Future research should focus on developing models to adjust for these differences.

Age-adjusted interpretation of biomarkers of renal function and homeostasis, inflammation, and circulation in Emergency Department patients.

Appropriate interpretation of blood tests is important for risk stratification and guidelines used in the Emergency Department (ED) (such as SIRS or CURB-65). The impact of abnormal blood test values on mortality may change with increasing age due to (patho)-physiologic changes. The aim of this study was therefore to assess the effect of age on the case-mix adjusted association between biomarkers of renal function and homeostasis, inflammation and circulation and in-hospital mortality. This observational multi-center cohort study has used the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database (NEED), including all consecutive ED patients ≥ 18 years of three hospitals. A generalized additive logistic regression model was used to visualize the association between in-hospital mortality, age and five blood tests (creatinine, sodium, leukocytes, C-reactive Protein, and hemoglobin). Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association between the number of abnormal blood test values and mortality per age category (18-50; 51-65; 66-80; > 80 years). Of the 94,974 included patients, 2550 (2.7%) patients died in-hospital. Mortality increased gradually for C-reactive Protein (CRP), and had a U-shaped association for creatinine, sodium, leukocytes, and hemoglobin. Age significantly affected the associations of all studied blood tests except in leukocytes. In addition, with increasing age categories, case-mix adjusted mortality increased with the number of abnormal blood tests. In summary, the association between blood tests and (adjusted) mortality depends on age. Mortality increases gradually or in a U-shaped manner with increasing blood test values. Age-adjusted numerical scores may improve risk stratification. Our results have implications for interpretation of blood tests and their use in risk stratification tools and acute care guidelines.Trial registration number Netherlands Trial Register (NTR) NL8422, 03/2020.

The association between vital signs and clinical outcomes in emergency department patients of different age categories.

BACKGROUND: Appropriate interpretation of vital signs is essential for risk stratification in the emergency department (ED) but may change with advancing age. In several guidelines, risk scores such as the Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) and Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) scores, commonly used in emergency medicine practice (as well as critical care) specify a single cut-off or threshold for each of the commonly measured vital signs. Although a single cut-off may be convenient, it is unknown whether a single cut-off for vital signs truly exists and if the association between vital signs and in-hospital mortality differs per age-category. AIMS: To assess the association between initial vital signs and case-mix adjusted in-hospital mortality in different age categories. METHODS: Observational multicentre cohort study using the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED) in which consecutive ED patients ≥18 years were included between 1 January 2017 and 12 January 2020. The association between vital signs and case-mix adjusted mortality were assessed in three age categories (18-65; 66-80; >80 years) using multivariable logistic regression. Vital signs were each divided into five to six categories, for example, systolic blood pressure (SBP) categories (≤80, 81-100, 101-120, 121-140, >140 mm Hg). RESULTS: We included 101 416 patients of whom 2374 (2.3%) died. Adjusted ORs for mortality increased gradually with decreasing SBP and decreasing peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2). Diastolic blood pressure (DBP), mean arterial pressure (MAP) and heart rate (HR) had quasi-U-shaped associations with mortality. Mortality did not increase for temperatures anywhere in the range between 35.5°C and 42.0°C, with a single cut-off around 35.5°C below which mortality increased. Single cut-offs were also found for MAP <70 mm Hg and respiratory rate >22/min. For all vital signs, older patients had larger increases in absolute mortality compared with younger patients. CONCLUSION: For SBP, DBP, SpO2 and HR, no single cut-off existed. The impact of changing vital sign categories on prognosis was larger in older patients. Our results have implications for the interpretation of vital signs in existing risk stratification tools and acute care guidelines.

Sex differences in clinical presentation and risk stratification in the Emergency Department: An observational multicenter cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate whether sex differences exist in disease presentations, disease severity and (case-mix adjusted) outcomes in the Emergency Department (ED). METHODS: Observational multicenter cohort study using the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED), including patients ≥ 18 years of three Dutch EDs. Multivariable logistic regression was used to study the associations between sex and outcome measures in-hospital mortality and Intensive Care Unit/Medium Care Unit (ICU/MCU) admission in ED patients and in subgroups triage categories and presenting complaints. RESULTS: Of 148,825 patients, 72,554 (48.8%) were females. Patient characteristics at ED presentation and diagnoses (such as pneumonia, cerebral infarction, and fractures) were comparable between sexes at ED presentation. In-hospital mortality was 2.2% in males and 1.7% in females. ICU/MCU admission was 4.7% in males and 3.1% in females. Males had higher unadjusted (OR 1.34(1.25-1.45)) and adjusted (AOR 1.34(1.24-1.46)) risks for mortality, and unadjusted (OR 1.54(1.46-1.63)) and adjusted (AOR 1.46(1.37-1.56)) risks for ICU/MCU admission. Males had higher adjusted mortality and ICU/MCU admission for all triage categories, and with almost all presenting complaints except for headache. CONCLUSIONS: Although patient characteristics at ED presentation for both sexes are comparable, males are at higher unadjusted and adjusted risk for adverse outcomes. Males have higher risks in all triage categories and with almost all presenting complaints. Future studies should investigate reasons for higher risk in male ED patients.

The association between presenting complaints and clinical outcomes in emergency department patients of different age categories.

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE: Although aging societies in Western Europe use presenting complaints (PCs) in emergency departments (EDs) triage systems to determine the urgency and severity of the care demand, it is unclear whether their prognostic value is age-dependent. OBJECTIVE: To assess the frequency and association of PCs with hospitalization and mortality across age categories. METHODS: An observational multicenter study using all consecutive visits of three EDs in the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database. Patients were stratified by age category (0-18; 19-50; 51-65; 66-80; >80 years), in which the association between PCs and case-mix adjusted hospitalization and mortality was studied using multivariable logistic regression analysis (adjusting for demographics, hospital, disease severity, comorbidity and other PCs). RESULTS: We included 172 104 ED-visits. The most frequent PCs were 'extremity problems' [range across age categories (13.5-40.8%)], 'feeling unwell' (9.5-23.4%), 'abdominal pain' (6.0-13.9%), 'dyspnea' (4.5-13.3%) and 'chest pain' (0.6-10.7%). For most PCs, the observed and the case-mix-adjusted odds for hospitalization and mortality increased the higher the age category. The most common PCs with the highest adjusted odds ratios (AORs, 95% CI) for hospitalization were 'diarrhea and vomiting' [2.30 (2.02-2.62)] and 'feeling unwell' [1.60 (1.48-1.73)]. Low hospitalization risk was found for 'chest pain' [0.58 (0.53-0.63)] and 'palpitations' [0.64 (0.58-0.71)]. CONCLUSIONS: Frequency of PCs in ED patients varies with age, but the same PCs occur in all age categories. For most PCs, (case-mix adjusted) hospitalization and mortality vary across age categories. 'Chest pain' and 'palpitations,' usually triaged 'very urgent', carry a low risk for hospitalization and mortality.

The difference between the patients' initial and previously measured systolic blood pressure as predictor of mortality in older emergency department patients.

PURPOSE: To assess how often baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) could be retrieved from the Electronic Health Record (EHR) in older Emergency Department (ED) patients. Second, to assess whether the difference between baseline SBP and initial SBP in the ED (ΔSBP) was associated with 30-day mortality. METHODS: A multicenter hypothesis-generating cohort study including patients ≥ 70 years. EHRs were searched for baseline SBPs. The association between ΔSBP and 30-day mortality was investigated. RESULTS: Baseline SBP was found in 220 out of 300 patients (73.3%; 95%CI 68.1-78.0%). In 72 patients with normal initial SBPs (133-166 mmHg) in the ED, fifteen (20.8%) had a negative ΔSBP with 20.0% mortality. A negative ΔSBP was associated with 30-day mortality (AHR 4.7; 1.7-12.7). CONCLUSION: Baseline SBPs are often available in older ED patients. The ΔSBP has prognostic value and could be used as an extra variable to recognize hypotension in older ED patients. Future studies should clarify whether the ΔSBP improves risk stratification in the ED.

The Impact of Age on Predictive Performance of National Early Warning Score at Arrival to Emergency Departments: Development and External Validation.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To investigate how age affects the predictive performance of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) at arrival to the emergency department (ED) regarding inhospital mortality and intensive care admission. METHODS: International multicenter retrospective cohorts from 2 Danish and 3 Dutch ED. Development cohort: 14,809 Danish patients aged ≥18 years with at least systolic blood pressure or pulse measured from the Danish Multicenter Cohort. External validation cohort: 50,448 Dutch patients aged ≥18 years with all vital signs measured from the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED). Multivariable logistic regression was used for model building. Performance was evaluated overall and within age categories: 18 to 64 years, 65 to 80 years, and more than 80 years. RESULTS: In the Danish Multicenter Cohort, a total of 2.5% died inhospital, and 2.8% were admitted to the ICU, compared with 2.8% and 1.6%, respectively, in the NEED. Age did not add information for the prediction of intensive care admission but was the strongest predictor for inhospital mortality. For NEWS alone, severe underestimation of risk was observed for persons above 80 while overall Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) was 0.82 (confidence interval [CI] 0.80 to 0.84) in the Danish Multicenter Cohort versus 0.75 (CI 0.75 to 0.77) in the NEED. When combining NEWS with age, underestimation of risks was eliminated for persons above 80, and overall AUROC increased significantly to 0.86 (CI 0.85 to 0.88) in the Danish Multicenter Cohort versus 0.82 (CI 0.81 to 0.83) in the NEED. CONCLUSION: Combining NEWS with age improved the prediction performance regarding inhospital mortality, mostly for persons aged above 80, and can potentially improve decision policies at arrival to EDs.

Frailty is associated with in-hospital mortality in older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands: the COVID-OLD study.

BACKGROUND: During the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, older patients had an increased risk of hospitalisation and death. Reports on the association of frailty with poor outcome have been conflicting. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to investigate the independent association between frailty and in-hospital mortality in older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands. METHODS: This was a multicentre retrospective cohort study in 15 hospitals in the Netherlands, including all patients aged ≥70 years, who were hospitalised with clinically confirmed COVID-19 between February and May 2020. Data were collected on demographics, co-morbidity, disease severity and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). Primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: A total of 1,376 patients were included (median age 78 years (interquartile range 74-84), 60% male). In total, 499 (38%) patients died during hospital admission. Parameters indicating presence of frailty (CFS 6-9) were associated with more co-morbidities, shorter symptom duration upon presentation (median 4 versus 7 days), lower oxygen demand and lower levels of C-reactive protein. In multivariable analyses, the CFS was independently associated with in-hospital mortality: compared with patients with CFS 1-3, patients with CFS 4-5 had a two times higher risk (odds ratio (OR) 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-3.0)) and patients with CFS 6-9 had a three times higher risk of in-hospital mortality (OR 2.8 (95% CI 1.8-4.3)). CONCLUSIONS: The in-hospital mortality of older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands was 38%. Frailty was independently associated with higher in-hospital mortality, even though COVID-19 patients with frailty presented earlier to the hospital with less severe symptoms.

Machine learning for developing a prediction model of hospital admission of emergency department patients: Hype or hope?

OBJECTIVE: Early identification of emergency department (ED) patients who need hospitalization is essential for quality of care and patient safety. We aimed to compare machine learning (ML) models predicting the hospitalization of ED patients and conventional regression techniques at three points in time after ED registration. METHODS: We analyzed consecutive ED patients of three hospitals using the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED). We developed prediction models for hospitalization using an increasing number of data available at triage, ∼30 min (including vital signs) and ∼2 h (including laboratory tests) after ED registration, using ML (random forest, gradient boosted decision trees, deep neural networks) and multivariable logistic regression analysis (including spline transformations for continuous predictors). Demographics, urgency, presenting complaints, disease severity and proxies for comorbidity, and complexity were used as covariates. We compared the performance using the area under the ROC curve in independent validation sets from each hospital. RESULTS: We included 172,104 ED patients of whom 66,782 (39 %) were hospitalized. The AUC of the multivariable logistic regression model was 0.82 (0.78-0.86) at triage, 0.84 (0.81-0.86) at ∼30 min and 0.83 (0.75-0.92) after ∼2 h. The best performing ML model over time was the gradient boosted decision trees model with an AUC of 0.84 (0.77-0.88) at triage, 0.86 (0.82-0.89) at ∼30 min and 0.86 (0.74-0.93) after ∼2 h. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed that machine learning models had an excellent but similar predictive performance as the logistic regression model for predicting hospital admission. In comparison to the 30-min model, the 2-h model did not show a performance improvement. After further validation, these prediction models could support management decisions by real-time feedback to medical personal.